Beware: Five Tricky Super Bowl Proposition Bets

Exploring Super Bowl Betting Props: Gems and Busts

In the realm of sports gambling, it’s important to remember that sometimes the best decision is to avoid betting on something that looks too easy. This holds true when considering the countless Super Bowl betting propositions that flood the market. Super Bowl proposition bets encompass everything from the coin toss to the halftime show, offering a plethora of betting opportunities. While some prop bets are purely for fun, others hold hidden potential for those willing to dedicate time to research. In this article, we will explore popular props that often attract public attention but tend to be bad bets. So, let’s explore five prop bets you should probably avoid in Super Bowl LIV.

Heading 1: Will any player take a knee during the national anthem?

The first prop bet we are scrutinizing revolves around whether any player will take a knee during the national anthem. Priced at 10-1 for a “yes” outcome, this bet appears tempting given the history of NFL protests led by former 49er Colin Kaepernick. However, it is important to recognize that these protests have waned in prominence over the past few years. As a result, it seems far-fetched for any current player, from either team, to reignite controversy by kneeling during the national anthem on such a prominent stage as the Super Bowl. Given the highly disciplined nature of both teams and the potential distraction it would pose, the odds on a kneeling player should be much higher—perhaps 25-1 or greater. Consequently, the current 10-1 price tag marks a bad bet.

Heading 2: Will the opening kickoff be a touchback?

Another prop bet we advise you to tread carefully with is the bet on whether the opening kickoff will result in a touchback. At present, the “yes” outcome is priced at -150. However, a historical analysis reveals that since 1995, only two Super Bowl opening kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks. That’s a mere two games out of the previous 25. So why is this bet priced at -150? While Miami’s enclosed structure favors longer kickoffs due to the absence of wind and other weather-related factors, it is worth noting that neither team’s kicker possesses an exceptionally powerful leg. Furthermore, the adrenaline rush at the start of the game often leads kick-returners to seize the opportunity to run the ball out of the end zone, assuming the ball is kicked far enough. All these factors combined make a touchback an unlikely outcome, rendering the current odds unattractive.

Heading 3: Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline

Shifting our attention to the moneyline, we caution against placing a bet on the Kansas City Chiefs. While betting on the Chiefs to cover the point spread may be a reasonable choice, the moneyline bet doesn’t offer favorable odds. The current price for the Chiefs stands at -125, meaning bettors must wager $125 to win back $100. This additional vigorish of 10 to 15 percent is unnecessary, especially when considering that, historically, only one Super Bowl has been decided by a one-point margin. Moreover, in a high-scoring game like this one, where the total is set at 54.5, the likelihood of such a close outcome diminishes even further. Given these factors, we recommend laying the -1 or -1.5 spread rather than opting for the moneyline, which proves to be a less promising choice.

Heading 4: Will the total points scored be an odd or even number?

An additional prop bet that does not seem worth the risk is the wager on whether the total points scored will amount to an odd or even number. The current odds for an odd outcome stand at -137. However, these odds rely on outdated scoring patterns from decades ago when the most common scores included numbers like 3 and 7, aligning with the points awarded for field goals and touchdowns. In recent Super Bowl games, however, scoring has become significantly higher, including missed extra points and two-point conversions. Consequently, the odds have shifted, with even numbers catching up in frequency. While the final score has historically landed on an odd number 30 times and an even number 23 times, the past five Super Bowls have all ended with even final scores. Therefore, betting on the odd outcome at -137 appears unwise, and even the +107 odds for an even outcome do not provide much value. All things considered, it is best to avoid this prop bet.

Heading 5: Will the 49ers blow a 28-3 lead?

Lastly, a prop bet that tantalizes with its novelty is the wager on whether the San Francisco 49ers will blow a 28-3 lead. This proposition is rooted in the infamous Super Bowl LI, where the Atlanta Falcons, led by then-offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan (now the 49ers head coach), squandered a 25-point advantage against the New England Patriots. However, the chances of a similar collapse occurring in this year’s Super Bowl are exceptionally low. For this bet to pay off, the 49ers would need to establish a 28-3 lead—a feat in itself—and then manage to lose the game. The odds of such a rare occurrence are astronomical, likely exceeding 100,000-1. While this prop bet adds an element of amusement, the price offered at 100-1 is merely a novelty and not a rational choice for bettors.

In Conclusion

As you sift through the myriad of Super Bowl betting props, it’s essential to approach them with caution and a discerning eye. While some offer entertaining possibilities, others present little value to shrewd bettors. We have explored five prop bets that we believe should be avoided due to unfavorable odds or unlikely outcomes. Remember, conducting thorough research and analyzing historical trends can uncover hidden gems and guide you toward more promising betting opportunities.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Are prop bets solely for entertainment purposes?

No, prop bets can be lucrative if you dedicate time to research and uncover favorable odds. While some prop bets are purely for entertainment, others hold potential for bettors willing to delve deeper.

Q: Why do odds for prop bets differ from traditional spread bets?

Odds for prop bets can vary significantly from traditional spread bets due to the speculative and unique nature of prop bets. Sportsbooks adjust odds based on their assessment of the likelihood of certain outcomes.

Q: How can I increase my chances of winning prop bets?

Thorough research and analysis of historical data are essential to make informed prop bets. Understanding trends, player performance, and matchups can provide valuable insights that increase the likelihood of winning.

Q: Should I avoid all prop bets?

No, not all prop bets should be avoided. While some may carry unfavorable odds, there are hidden gems that offer great value. By researching and analyzing the prop bets, you can identify opportunities worth pursuing.

Q: How can I find accurate and up-to-date information on prop bets?

Staying informed is crucial when it comes to prop bets. By following reputable sports news sources, checking odds regularly, and monitoring player and team updates, you can stay up to date with the latest information to inform your betting decisions.

Doug I. Jones

Doug I. Jones

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