Understanding NFL Futures: A Comprehensive Guide
When it comes to sports betting, NFL futures bets offer a unique opportunity for fans to wager on outcomes that will be decided in the distant future. This article will provide a detailed explanation of what NFL futures bets are and whether they are worth considering. We will explore the concept of line movement with NFL futures and provide tips on when to place your bets for the best odds. Additionally, we will discuss different types of NFL futures and how to hedge your bets for maximum potential profits. So, whether you’re an avid football fan or a curious bettor, this guide will equip you with the knowledge you need to navigate the exciting world of NFL futures.
What Are NFL Futures?
NFL futures bets are wagers placed well in advance of the bet’s outcome being determined. These bets typically cover markets that span an entire NFL season, with the results being determined at the end of either the regular season or the postseason. Popular NFL futures markets include predicting which teams will make the playoffs, who will win the Super Bowl, and even individual player performance statistics like interceptions.
Are NFL Futures Bets Worth It?
Opinions on NFL futures bets can be divided among football fans and bettors. For casual bettors, these bets offer the potential for a substantial payout with a relatively small stake. However, serious bettors may see them as an added risk due to the uncertainties involved. It’s important to acknowledge the element of guesswork in placing bets on outcomes that will be determined after several months, during which teams will play numerous games.
Despite the risks, there have been remarkable underdog stories in the NFL that exemplify the potential rewards of futures bets. For instance, in 1999, the St. Louis Rams (now Los Angeles Rams) won the Super Bowl despite being considered +30,000 longshots at the beginning of the season. A modest $10 wager on their success would have resulted in a $3,000 profit. While odds like these may be rare nowadays, futures odds still tend to offer generous payouts due to the lower implied probability.
In conclusion, NFL futures bets can be worth considering as long as you approach them sensibly and understand the risks involved. It is advisable to wager smaller amounts on these long-term bets. In the following sections, we will provide additional advice on how to increase your chances of success with season predictions.
Understanding Line Movement with NFL Futures
When the Betting Lines Open
The NFL futures market opens soon after the previous season concludes. However, placing bets on the opening lines can be risky since they are often based solely on the previous season’s performance, which may not accurately reflect future outcomes. Over the spring and summer, teams’ rosters undergo significant changes through drafts, trades, retirements, and injuries. Therefore, it is crucial to consider that opening lines may not reflect the current state and potential of each team. Nevertheless, keen observers can still make early picks based on their knowledge of previous season performances. These picks can serve as references once the new season begins and more information becomes available.
When the Season Starts
The late July and August period is a popular and sensible time to make season predictions for NFL futures bets. By this time, bettors have more information upon which to base their predictions. Factors such as a team’s performance in the NFL draft, offseason trades, and preseason form can provide valuable insights.
It is worth noting that bookmakers also adjust the lines as they receive new information. Strong preseason performances can lead to shorter odds for certain teams in many futures markets. However, even if a team from the previous season shows promising performance in the offseason, there is still good value to be found in their odds. When placing bets at the start of a new NFL season, consider roster changes, preseason performances, and the strength of each team’s schedule.
During the Season
Once the NFL season begins, betting focus shifts to individual games with point spreads, totals, and money lines dominating the market. However, this does not mean that NFL futures bets become irrelevant. In fact, many bettors prefer to wait until the season starts to assess the teams’ performances before placing their futures bets.
Placing bets during the season allows you to analyze the ongoing games and make informed decisions based on the ever-changing odds. As the season progresses, bookmakers continually adjust the lines, especially for in-form favorites. This presents an opportunity to capitalize on undervalued teams that may experience temporary setbacks but still possess the potential to turn their season around.
Hedging Your Bets
Hedging your bets is a well-known strategy in the world of gambling and can also be effectively applied to NFL futures. This strategy involves placing additional bets to minimize potential losses or secure a guaranteed profit. Let’s consider an example:
Suppose you placed a futures bet on the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl at odds of +1200, two weeks before the season started. As the regular season progresses, the Ravens dominate the AFC North and secure a place in the playoffs. At this point, you could choose to hedge your original bet by placing additional bets on each of their playoff opponents. While this may reduce your potential profits if the Ravens win the Super Bowl, it also minimizes the risk, ensuring a break-even or profitable outcome depending on your original stake. Hedging your bets is a strategic approach that balances potential gains and potential losses.
Exploring Different NFL Futures
While betting on the Super Bowl winner is the most popular NFL futures bet, there are various other intriguing markets available for season-long wagers. These markets allow bettors to place bets on outcomes beyond the Super Bowl. Let’s take a look at some of these exciting NFL futures options:
Super Bowl Champions
Predicting the winner of the upcoming Super Bowl is the most
